Why Only 18% of CEOs Believe They Can Achieve Reshoring ROI
- 3 days ago
- 2 min read
Executive Summary
Only 18% of CEOs said they were very confident in achieving acceptable ROI from reshoring or nearshoring in 2026, down from 47 percent the prior year, according to the Kearney Reshoring Index survey.
While U.S. manufacturing investments tripled over four years. Domestic capacity grew 1.5 percent, as policy uncertainty caused capital projects to stall or be abandoned outright.
The gap between reshoring intent and execution is a major supply chain visibility problem. Most manufacturers cannot see past Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers.
What Is Happening
A 50% rise in CEOs citing geopolitical tensions as a primary reshoring motivator has not yet translated into domestic output. CEO confidence in achieving acceptable reshoring ROI has fallen from 47 percent to 18 percent in 2026. Executives are NOT abandoning reshoring as a strategy. They are losing confidence in their ability to execute it. The distinction matters because the issue is lack of visibility and planning.
Why It Is Happening
U.S. manufacturing investment tripled over four years. Capacity grew 1.5 percent. Import volumes rose to fill the demand gap domestic production could not meet. The investment did not translate to output.
Labor costs, workforce shortages, and infrastructure constraints are the barriers CEOs name most frequently as impediments. But the more precise problem shows up at the supplier tier level. Companies that moved final assembly to Mexico or the U.S. discovered that their Tier 2 and Tier 3 inputs had not moved at all. As an example, the AI server supply chain illustrates this exactly. Final assembly is relocated to Mexico, but Kearney estimates that assembly step represents just 1 to 2 percent of total product value. The boards, chips, and components that account for the other 98 percent still ship from Asia. The most visible link in the chain moved.
Redirecting a Tier 1 supplier without traceability through Tiers 5 or 6 does not reduce exposure. It removes the evidence that exposure exists.
How Sustain360° Fixes It
Visibility to Tier 6 traceability: Map your supply chain from finished product to raw material extraction, with cost, compliance, and emissions data verified at every node
Exposure identification: Locate China and low-cost country dependency across all tiers, including through transshipment routes that Tier 1 audits do not reach
Sourcing simulation: Model tariff exposure, lead times, and cost impact across verified supplier alternatives before executing a sourcing change
Audit-ready documentation: Execute sourcing transitions with evidentiary compliance records at every tier, built to withstand regulatory and procurement scrutiny
Reshoring intent without supply chain intelligence is not a strategy. It is a liability.
Book a Discovery Session to see how manufacturers are building the traceability required to close the gap between reshoring intent and verified execution.
